Stop hoping for normal: Peter Hinssen on weaponizing uncertainty

Peter Hinssen doesn’t just talk about the future, he drags you into it. At Amsterdam Business Forum 2025 he leaves no doubt: uncertainty isn’t a phase, it’s the Never Normal. And leaders who wait for stability will miss their chance.

“What if this isn’t a storm? What if this is the new climate?”

Peter knows what he’s talking about. He has advised Google, Apple and Microsoft, teaches at London Business School and MIT Sloan, and has sold multiple tech start-ups. With his brand-new book, The Uncertainty Principle, he shows why thriving in uncertainty is the ultimate leadership skill. At ABF, he brings that message to life: how you can anticipate disruption, adapt faster, and build resilience in a world that never slows down?

Let’s dive into five of the most powerful insights we took from Peter’s keynote.

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Insight 1: disruption always starts slow, then suddenly becomes normal

Every wave follows the same curve: first it’s rare, then it’s everywhere. “Mobile phones were once exotic. And then, boom, they became absolutely normal,” says Peter. The same goes for TikTok: the fastest-growing app in history, now eating 95 minutes a day of its users’ time.

And it’s not just social media. Today AI is building Lego sets from scanned bricks, translating children’s books into sign language in real time, and even coaching nervous job seekers during online interviews. What looks like a toy today can transform an industry tomorrow.

Concrete lesson for leaders: Don’t dismiss the weird new thing. If TikTok, ChatGPT or even a Lego-sorting app can go mainstream in months, imagine what the next tool can do to your business. Spot the curve early, or risk being left behind.

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Insight 2: innovate when you can, not when you need

The old pattern—wait until you peak, then change—no longer works. “If you wait until you need, you’re going to be too late,” warns Peter. Look at DeepMind: in 2011 it was just a demo playing Atari Breakout. A decade later, the same tech cracked two million protein structures and won a Nobel Prize.

Concrete lesson for leaders: Reinvent in good times, not bad. If you only start when the pressure is on, you’ll already be too late. Make reinvention a routine, not a last resort.

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Insight 3: eliminate yesterwork before it kills you

Companies love adding shiny new projects. But what about the old stuff nobody dares to stop? Peter calls it yesterwork: “Yesterwork is the silent killer of organizations. We all have to become yesterwork hunters.”

Take annual budgets, for example. Peter jokes they are “a sarcastic corporate ritual where people put fake news in Excel.” Everyone knows they don’t work, yet somehow they survive year after year.

Concrete lesson for leaders: Go hunting. Each quarter, kill at least one outdated report, process, or meeting. If you don’t, yesterwork will quietly eat away at your capacity for change.

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Insight 4: stop solving puzzles, start solving mysteries

After 9/11, the Commission concluded the disaster wasn’t caused by lack of information, it was lack of imagination. Peter uses this to make a point: “In the Never Normal, we don’t need puzzle solvers, we need mystery solvers. People who know how to move forward even if you don’t have all the pieces.”

As he puts it: “9/11 wasn’t a failure of information. It was a failure of imagination.”

Concrete lesson for leaders: Don’t wait for perfect data. In a volatile world, you’ll never have it. Train your teams to act with incomplete information. Progress beats perfection, every single time.

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Insight 5: spend time on the day after tomorrow

Peter’s model divides leadership focus into Today (operations), Tomorrow (incremental change), and the Day After Tomorrow (radical innovation). But reality is brutal: “93% on today, 7% on tomorrow, and zero on the day after tomorrow.” And so, instead of looking ahead, many leaders waste time on the “shit of yesterday.”

Concrete lesson for leaders: Protect at least 10% of your time and budget for the Day After Tomorrow, or today’s urgencies will steal it away.

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So, how to lead in the Never Normal?

Peter makes it simple: the antidote to chaos is not control, but capability. If you want to thrive in the Never Normal, build these three muscles:

• Anticipate: pick up weak signals early. Don’t just react, pre-act
• Adapt: design fluid systems and teams that can shift when the world does
• Rebound: accept that mistakes will happen and bounce back stronger every time

Stop solving for stability. Start building for volatility. As Peter warns: “If you don’t take change by the hand, it will take you by the throat.”

The Never Normal doesn’t ask for your permission. It demands your participation. It rewards the restless, the curious, the bold. So stop bracing for calm and start designing for the storm. Because in a world where AI powers Barbie dolls and missile systems, the real risk isn’t doing the wrong thing. It’s doing nothing at all.

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Questions for reflection

Ready to put Peter’s insights into practice? These questions will get you started.

• Which “weird new thing” today could disrupt your industry tomorrow?
• What’s one reinvention you should start before you need it?
• Which piece of yesterwork is draining energy in your company?
• How can you encourage your team to act with incomplete information?
• What would a true “Day After Tomorrow” project look like for you?

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Visual recap

By Monique van Rooyen

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